- The Phillies went 80-82 last season, despite an epic and historic meltdown in August and September. With the additions of stars Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCuthen, David Robertson and Jean Segura, the team should be significantly better. After spending most of the summer in first place last season, anything less than being a contender for National League East will be disappointing.
Either way, it should be an exciting season at improved Citizens Bank Park. I'll be there nine times this spring and summer with an additional game in Pittsburgh against the Pirates.
Here are my thoughts on the roster and the upcoming season:
Manager-
Gabe Kapler will be on the hot seat, starting with Opening Day on Thursday. Ownership has spent too much money to have wacky moves by the manager, such as odd use of the bullpen, quick pitching changes of the starters, questionable shift moves on defense, numerous lineup changes, and stupid analytical decisions through out the year ruin what could be a playoff season and beyond.
Kapler needs to get off to a fast start or else questions will arise as we move toward Memorial Day. This is the second year of a three-year contract for Kapler. He could earn an extension with a good year or get fired somewhere during the season.
Catcher-
J.T. Realmuto is a huge upgrade at catcher over Jorge Alfaro in all waysboth offensively and defensively. Realmuto will probably hit fifth in the lineup[ and should have a big year hitting in CBP, as he hit better on the road last season than in spacious Miami.
Andrew Knapp will be the backup and will probably start once a week. He's a switch-hitter and will give the club punch off the bench.
Signing Realmuto to a long term contract should be a priority for Phillies management, especially since there really isn't a catching prospect in the minors right now.
Infield-
Rhys Hoskins should also have a huge year. He is hitting behind Bryce Harper so he should see more fastballs. He is back at first base where he belongs, which should ease his mind both in the field and at the plate. Hoskins should hit at least 30 home runs again.
Cesar Hernandez will open the season at second base. He is a free agent after the season. The team will let him walk so they can play Scott Kingery at his natural position, especially after giving Kingery a $24 million contract ( a mistake?). Hernandez is a switch-hitter and can hit lead-off, as he did in 2018, but I like McCuthen hitting first, so Cesar will probably hit lower in the order. defensively he is solid. He can run but doesn't use his speed enough. Cesar is a good bunter and will get his share of infield hits, as well as hit between 10-15 home runs.
At shortstop, another huge upgrade in All-Star Jean Segura. He will probably hit second, at least to start-off the season. Segura is an athletic shortstop, and, compared to J.P. Crawford, is worlds ahead of him in all ways.
Maikel Franco sort of won third base by default. Since the Phillies didn't sign Manny Machado or another free agent, Franco gets another shot at being the Phillies' everyday third sacker. Franco is still only 26. He can hit 20-25 homers, play solid third base and doesn't have to carry the lineup now.
Scott Kingery will be the infield reserve. Kingery can also play center field. It's a big year for "Jet-pack." He needs to show his potential when he does play. Granted, he won't get the regular at-bats he should. But Kingery needs to make contact, use his speed and show the front office it's OK to allow Hernandez to walk after the season, or even attempt to trade him in July for pitching.
Outfield-
Of course, Bryce Harper will patrol right field this summer and for 12 more summers after that. He is the name to sell tickets, jerseys and bring excitement back to the Phillies, as well as hit 40-50 home runs. He should hit third in the batting order and influence the order just by his presence. Harper needs to stay healthy. He is entering his prime at 26, and has a desire to reach the playoffs, play in the World Series and win a championship, things he never got to do in Washington. Hopefully the fans won't get down on Harper if/when he slumps. Getting off to a fast start not only helps the club in the standings ( especially since so many April games are against NL East foes), but rallies the already excited fans to his side.
Odubel Herrera needs to step it up as well or else a healthy Roman Quinn or someone else ( Altherr, Kingery Heasley) will replace him in center field. He can't be lazy anymore, not running out ground balls or sleeping on the basepaths. He needs to stay focused. With his unorthodox style (leg kick) at the plate, it's easy for Herrera to get into slumps by losing his timing. With all the veteran hitters now in the lineup hopefully Herrera's slumps won't last as long.
Andrew McCuthen will bring a professionalism to the Phils, both on the field and in the clubhouse. The former MVP will hit lead-off. He takes walks, can still hit home runs and has speed on the bases. McCuthen will play left field but has played right field and even center field in a pinch.
Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr are the outfield reserves. Williams won't get the at-bats he wants but he should be the main pinch-hitter off the bench, a role he excelled at in 2018 when he wasn't playing regularly. Williams could also be traded for pitching in July. Altherr could also play everyday in the outfield, but after having a disappointing 2018 he needs to show management that he is more than a bench player. He could also be trade bait down the road.
Starting Pitching-
Aaron Nola is the ace and should be even better after his contract was extended. Winning 20 games isn't out of the question. Beyond Nola there are question marks. Can Nick Pivetta finally have a break-out season as the # 2 starter? Will Jake Arrieta bounce back after a shaky 2018 and an equally shaky spring training, or is he on the decline? Can Zack Eflin improve upon his good season last year? What about Vince Valasquez, who continues to strike hitters out and struggle with control, location and high pitch-counts. Is Valasquez destined for the bullpen as a long-man or closer?
Bullpen-
Will Kapler finally give his relief pitchers a role or will he do as he did last season and mix-and-match? Siranthony Dinguez or David Robertson should close, but knowing Kapler, you may see them get key outs anywhere from the sixth inning on. Adam Morgan is back as the left-handed option. Pat Neshek is the seventh inning guy who can't pitch back-to-back games. I don't trust Hector Neris after watching him implode in Los Angeles and Washington in the past.
Overall, the Phillies seem to have it all- youth ( many of their core players are just entering together into their prime) and veteran leadership; power and speed. their defense should be much improved. Pitching will be the key to the Phillies success. The front office can't be afraid to upgrade the roster during the season, and maybe most importantly of all, the manager can't blow games by making dumb decisions in the name of analytics.
There's no reason why Philadelphia can't win the East, make the playoffs and take their chances this season. Time to start winning. The rebuild is finally over. The long-suffering fans can start enjoying their team winning again. No more will visiting fans take over the park. Sell-outs will prevail and get even more frequent as the summer rolls along and wins increase. Plus we may finally have a pennant race in September.
My Major league Preview will be on the blog tomorrow, including my predictions ( I had the Indians winning it all last season-I was wrong). Please check it out!
Play ball!
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